Obama/McCain voter ratio predictions?

[Canonista]

In your head, how will the election go?

My thoughts 60/40 McCain wins. Obama supporters are a loud bunch but the silent majority will win out.

[Mythik]

FWIW, I'm reluctant to predict anything until after the VP debate October 2nd.

[Zandoz]

No matter which wins, it's certain to be by less than a majority of legal age eligible voters...almost certain to be by less than a majority of registered voters...probably by less than a majority of those actually voting...and with our absurd electoral college system, a good chance by less than the most votes. So much for representing WE THE PEOPLE.

I'm still hoping for a landslide write-in victory for Noneof Theabove.

[Canonista]

Originally Posted by Zandoz

I'm still hoping for a landslide write-in victory for Noneof Theabove.

That's my candidate too!

[RobitusinZ]

I'm thinking 51% for McCain. America's a scared, conservative country in the end. Obama just isn't offering anything to make him the first BLACK president...and yes, his skin color is a HUGE issue. How many conversations are likely to be going on right now...
"Yeah, I dunno...McCain...4 more years of the same garbage."
"Yeah, but the other dude's black, man."
"Dude, you're so freaking racist...so what?"
"So...he's black...c'mon, man...he's no Martin Luther King!"
"Eh, you're right..."

Obama started with a strike against him, and really had to push something out to make people WANT to vote for him, and he hasn't done that. For the typical, non-informed, borderline apathetic voter, if it's 50/50 McCain/Obama, they'll go McCain since the other dude's black. It's reality. I wish it weren't, but it's simply true.

[VVET]

It depends on how the programers set the electronic voting machines to hide votes, until election day.

[Les Toil]

Originally Posted by Canonista

In your head, how will the election go?

My thoughts 60/40 McCain wins. Obama supporters are a loud bunch but the silent majority will win out.

Well if that's the case then the country is stating we'd rather vote for a desperate man who would chose a politically incompetent running mate than to vote for Obama.

Again, is that thinking in terms of bettering America and it's relationship with the world...or thinking in terms of not wanting the other team to win the election?

[Les Toil]

Originally Posted by RobitusinZ

Obama started with a strike against him, and really had to push something out to make people WANT to vote for him, and he hasn't done that. For the typical, non-informed, borderline apathetic voter, if it's 50/50 McCain/Obama, they'll go McCain since the other dude's black. It's reality. I wish it weren't, but it's simply true.

Unfortunately that's very, very true. We're a scared, selfish Conservative country.

Republicans would cast their vote for Donald Duck if he was their candidate running against Obama.

[Zandoz]

Originally Posted by Les Toil

Again, is that thinking in terms of bettering America and it's relationship with the world...or thinking in terms of not wanting the other team to win the election?

From what I'm hearing from folks across the board is that the vast majority of the votes cast this time around will not be FOR the candidate they are voting....but actually votes AGAINST the other candidate.

[Les Toil]

http://iftheworldcouldvote.com

By the way Canon, if McCain wins, how can one explain the results of the above web election which spans the world? A few thousand Americans voted stating they want Obama overwhelmingly. Don't conservatives participate in these polls, or is it that they have a fear their identity will be revealed as a McCain supporter? The reason I ask is because it was like trying to find a needle in a haystack when trying to find people who admitted they voted for W. Bush for both terms.

[waldo]

Originally Posted by Zandoz

From what I'm hearing from folks across the board is that the vast majority of the votes cast this time around will not be FOR the candidate they are voting....but actually votes AGAINST the other candidate.

Such is the effectiveness of attack campaign ads.

I doubt a McCain victory based on recent polling and the likelihood of continued bad economic developments between now and election day. However, he should come close. It all depends on those handful of close battleground states like Florida and Ohio.

[Seth Warren]

Originally Posted by Zandoz

I'm still hoping for a landslide write-in victory for Noneof Theabove.

Now there's a candidate I can really get behind!

As to the original topic, I predict a squeaker. We likely won't know until the next morning, like it's been with the past two elections. However, we all know that the popular vote doesn't matter and it's the electoral college that will ultimately decide.

I've played with a few online electoral college maps and there is a possibility that both candidates could end up with 269 votes each (and with this election it isn't far-fetched either - I wasn't running a wild scenario with Texas blue and New York red or anything like that). Should that happen, the tie-breaking vote goes to the House for President and Senate for Vice President. As such, it is unlikely, but we could end up with Obama/Palin or McCain/Biden.

Edit: for those who wish to play along at home - www.270towin.com

[Mack27]

Originally Posted by Les Toil

http://iftheworldcouldvote.com

By the way Canon, if McCain wins, how can one explain the results of the above web election which spans the world? A few thousand Americans voted stating they want Obama overwhelmingly. Don't conservatives participate in these polls, or is it that they have a fear their identity will be revealed as a McCain supporter? The reason I ask is because it was like trying to find a needle in a haystack when trying to find people who admitted they voted for W. Bush for both terms.

I don't think conservatives do participate in those types of polls nearly as much as liberals. Stuff like that will be heavily college kids, who are liberal, then later when they get pissed off about how much the government is taking out of their paychecks a lot of them stop being liberal and stop voting in internet polls because they're too busy looking for tax loopholes.

[Keb]

I think it's going to be 48.9%-49% of the popular vote. Not sure who'll have the edge, but I'd guess Obama--if nothing significant changes between then and now. I think the electoral votes will come within 20 of 270 on one side or the other. I'm hoping like heck that the razor edge won't be so thin as to require more than one or two just-to-be-sure recounts--and that it won't be an extended, fraud-prone process as it was in Florida 2000.

I really don't believe that even with Bush's low rating and some evidence of changes in the national opinion about certain topics, that we've escaped the rural-urban divide, and I expect it's still very balanced between the two population-wise (even more so on the electoral college level).

I'd like to see the next president win a clear victory that goes uncontested, though. It doesn't have to be by much, but if both the popular vote and the electoral agree, or if no states are close enough between the two to require a recount, maybe we can really, finally move on from 2000--whoever wins. I seriously don't expect us to be that lucky and I wouldn't be shocked if we got an Obama popular vote win with a McCain electoral win. That would probably be the worst case scenario, too, as far as potential for healing in this election goes. It would instantly tear open the scabs and scuttle the legitimacy of McCain's presidency in the eyes of millions globally. So I'm sincerely hoping that isn't what happens.

[thatgirl08]

I'm guessing Obama really. I think you'd be surprised how many people who have never bothered to vote before are going to be coming out for this election. I'm thinking younger voters & minorities mainly.

[Jack Skellington]

I personally don't think McCain really has much of a chance anymore. Biden would have to pull off some pretty amazing gaffes at this point to bring Obama down.

That reminds me, I just don't see this people would vote for just about any candidate so not to vote for Obama stuff. He is the golden boy of the media and seems generally well liked and respected, unlike McCain.

If anything I think it's Biden that people don't actually care for. Instead of bringing a boost to Obama or rally the troops like a good VP candidate should, Biden seemed to knock a lot wind out of Obama's sails the moment he was announced. Instead of helping, it seems like Obama has had to waste time and energy smoothing over Biden's gaffes.

If on the odd chance that Obama does lose, it will be on the shoulders of Biden. Not the Republicans, not Palin, not the American public, it will be Biden. But again I don't see Obama losing at this point.

I've said this before, hopefully Biden will have the good sense to stay in the background during Obama's presidency and embarrass him as little as possible.

[Observer]

Trends may be different elsewhere in the country, but in my community Obama's race isn't even being discussed anymore.

Some people are scared of the extreme agendas of his backers and some of his proposals, but even more are disgusted by the current administration. To say this election is going to be decided on the basis of what voters are against is a fair statement. Palin and Biden, age and race, are non-issues.

If the election were held today Obama I believe would win by a narrow margin - 5-6%. Why? Because even some who see him as ultra liberal doubt he could do that much more harm than what has happened these past eight years.

[Keb]

Originally Posted by Les Toil

http://iftheworldcouldvote.com

By the way Canon, if McCain wins, how can one explain the results of the above web election which spans the world? A few thousand Americans voted stating they want Obama overwhelmingly. Don't conservatives participate in these polls, or is it that they have a fear their identity will be revealed as a McCain supporter? The reason I ask is because it was like trying to find a needle in a haystack when trying to find people who admitted they voted for W. Bush for both terms.

Actually...fine, I'll stand up and say it. It's my fault. I voted for him both times. (Though I doubt California even counted my absentee vote in 2000. And back then I was disappointed McCain had lost the nomination.)

I voted for him in 2000 because I was severely disappointed by Clinton's presidency (whom I would have voted for as a 12 year old in 1992). I felt betrayed by the things he had done while in office and I wanted someone I felt like I could trust. I also felt like Al Gore was wrong on many core issues I cared about at that time, and didn't feel like he would be a good president. (I still don't.) I saw Bush as not great, but the lesser of two evils.

I voted for W in 2004, because a great number of things that we have since learned about his actions in office were not readily apparent to me. I voted for him because the Democrats didn't offer me a compelling alternative, and certainly did not even claim to match my views on the issues that had become increasingly important to me. I voted for him because the depth of his betrayal of my trust wasn't clear, and while I wasn't sure we should have gone to war in Iraq, I believed that the president must have had access to information I didn't, indicating it was advisable. I felt that the world that was not yet condemning our actions in Iraq so loudly would have been even more angry with the US if we had -not- attacked, based on my understanding of the situation. I wasn't infatuated with Bush, but I still saw him as the lesser of two evils.

Does that mean I'm pleased with how it turned out? Heck no. My trust in Bush has been betrayed just as much as my faith in Clinton had been. I'm looking forward to a clean slate with a new administration. I'm doing my best not to let two disappointments make me entirely cynical. There are things that Bush has done right (very few, but they're there) and there are things that were mostly right in his administration. He's put a few admirable and capable people into various offices (Condi Rice, Gen. Patraeus), and while in some ways poorly executed, I think NCLB is a good idea. (And I am a teacher.)

I think Nancy Pelosi really blew it when she took office and promptly did not initiate impeachment proceedings, however. I suspect she must have believed they wouldn't go anywhere, but meh. W's been bad for our country in too many ways to count, and while in the same place and time I'd probably have voted the same way, knowing what I know now I would have been even more eager to have McCain running in 2000.

I'm not ashamed of my vote. I am severely disappointed in my president for having abused the trust that my countrymen put in him. If he were my student, I'd give him a D-. I'm still hoping that a stable Iraq will emerge from the ashes, and that the rights that have been curtailed out of fear can be restored in the near future. I'm hopeful that a new presidency can help to rebuild the ties to our allies and the positive things that Americans both long for and work for in the world.

There's a lot of Americans who voted for him in both elections. At the time, it wasn't as crazy a notion as it seems 8 years later.

[biodieselman]

IMO, it will be a very close election if neither candidate makes a mistake these last few weeks. The first presidential debate had no home runs & no errors. I haven't talked to anyone voting for the VP & ultimately they have little effect on the outcome. There's still the chance there will be an error will be made during the last debate but both McCain & Obama are polished speakers & I doubt either will make a huge blunder.

Plugs v Palin... that's a different story. Who's going to keep the gaffe score tomorrow? It'll be good to have some comedy relief. Both sides are taking this election way too personal.

Face the facts... Washington is broken. Watching the petty partisanship while our economy fails, our energy dependence grows, failure to address illegal immigration & watching wasteful government programs growing bigger & bigger each administration, how much more proof do we require? No matter the outcome, we're screwed.

[T_Devil]

Obama.
Because Palin is just an idiot.

If McCain wins, we deserve every last bit of horrible doom we will undoubtedly get. We deserve to live in the crappy existence we will have chosen for ourselves. That's right, WE DESERVE CRAP!

I don't though. I know when to NOT listen to an idiot. I know a disaster waiting to happen when I see one. I'd like to think other Americans see that as well. I think the ones dumb enough to vote for Bush last time has learned that if you play with fire, you burn down the neighborhood.

[Tina]

I don't watch TV normally, but I'll be watching thurs. night. That's too rich to pass up, frankly.

I'll also be voting within the next few days -- by fax, since I'm out of the country. Never voted by fax before...

[Mythik]

Originally Posted by Tina

I don't watch TV normally, but I'll be watching thurs. night. That's too rich to pass up, frankly.

I'll also be voting within the next few days -- by fax, since I'm out of the country. Never voted by fax before...

I just picked up a second job, and I start work Thursday night. No watching the debate for me.

I've been trying to find someone with TiVo who can record it; barring that, I'm sure it will be on Youtube the next day. It definitely will be too rich to pass up.

[LalaCity]

Unless some catastrophe occurs, I think Obama will maintain his current six point lead, possibly expand it between now and election day. That said, I feel that Obama cannot win without a good 6-8 percentage points over McCain. He needs a wide berth to overcome the so-called "Bradley effect," i.e., the tendency of certain people to claim their support for a black candidate to pollsters when in reality they would not vote for one.

And then there's the issue of those Diebold machines (yeah, they're still in use)...

In other words, I'm not feeling terribly secure. And I think it's a tragedy that a black candidate can not simply win, but has to win overwhelmingly.

[Jack Skellington]

Personally, I hope they both do well.

I want Biden to do well so we don't have any more of his gaffes detracting against Obama.

I want Palin to do well because I loathe the media and they are just gnashing at the bit to jump all over her.

Plus if they both do well the media will be forced to focus on the actual issues instead of just having a field day going after either one.

[Tad]

For this sort of thing I tend to trust the electoral markets. Here is the page for the venerable (by the standards of these things) University of Iowa electoral market: http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html

These are the bets of real people, betting real money, so I'm pretty sure they've looked at it harder than I ever will. As I post this the bets are about 70:30 for a Democrat presidential win, with the betting on the popular vote sitting about 55:45, which would be a landslide compared to recent elections, but is also much higher than it was running a few weeks ago. We'll see how accurate it ends up being...